Deputy President Ruto and Azimio La Umoja Flag Bearer Raila Odinga In a level pegging contest: latest poll reveals

A new poll released by Trends and Insights Africa (TIFA) just 10 days to the August 9 general election shows that neither Raila Odinga of Azimio La Umoja nor William Ruto of Kenya Kwanza would secure a first-round win if elections were held today.

According to the poll Raila’s popularity has increased by 4 per cent to stand at 46.7 per cent, while that of Ruto grew by 5 per cent to 44.4 per cent.

George Wajackoyah of Roots party is at 1.8 per cent while David Mwaure of Agano party trailed at 0.1 per cent.

In a previous poll by the same research firm, Raila stood at 42 per cent while Ruto had 39 per cent.

TIFA  Analyst Tom Wolf further disclosed that 4 per cent would not vote if elections were held today since 5.2 per cent of the respondents were still undecided.

“The presence of Prof. George Wajackoyah and David Mwaure raises the possibility that neither Odinga nor Ruto will be able to secure an outright, first-round win,” stated the TIFA analyst Tom Wolf.

According to the poll, all coalitions have increased their support nationwide. United Democratic Alliance (UDA), affiliated with  Ruto, maintained the top spot as the most popular political party with 41 per cent.

Raila’s support in Nairobi county stood at 51 per cent, while Ruto’s at 34 per cent.

However, Ruto and his running mate Rigathi Gachagua widened the gap in Mt Kenya, with their popularity standing at 66 per cent while that of the Former Prime Minister at 27 per cent.

“Ruto-Gachagua ticket doesn’t have a much gender gap,” Wolf noted.

The former Prime Minister was most popular in Nyanza and Western, while his Kenya Kwanza counterpart was the preferred candidate in Central Rift and Northern Regions.

Raila also received more support from men than women, the exact opposite of DP Ruto.

Notably, Wajackoyah’s support across all the regions stood at above one per cent attracting most of his support from Coast and Lower Eastern.

Wolf explained that Mwaure attracted slight support in Coast, Nyanza and Mt Kenya.

The survey was conducted in 9 zones; Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.

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